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Solow, 1959, A contribution to the theory of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics 70(1):65-94, doi: 10.2307/1884513.ģ See D.W. Acemoglu and J.A Robinson, 2012, Why Nations Fail: Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty, Crown Publishing Group, Chicago, Ill.Ģ R.M. For the influence on macro institutions on technology, see D. Mokyr, 1990, The Levers of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress, Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K. On the influence of vested interests on blocking of technology, see J. The slowdown preceded the 2008 Great Recession, suggesting that the recession is not the only explanation forĬomputers and organizational capital, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:137-199. aggregate productivity growth has slowed, according to official statistics from U.S. 2 In the mid-1990s, the rate of productivity growth increased significantly in the United States, led by the IT-producing sectors as well as IT-using sectors, a change attributed in part to improvements in the nature and use of IT. In turn, productivity growth comes from new technologies and new techniques of production and distribution. In his seminal research on economic growth, Robert Solow found that most of the increases in human living standards have come not from working more hours, and not from using more capital or other resources, but from improved productivity-that is, increases in the efficiency of production as defined by the ratio of output to input. Nevertheless, interpreting societal and economic responses to developments in technology can at least provide a framework for thinking about the future. Doing so with respect to the fast-changing and dynamic area of technology is even more challenging. The committee is keenly aware that making forecasts about social phenomena is perilous. In each case, the role of technology is considered, recent changes are summarized, and some potential future developments are considered, building on the discussion in Chapter 2 of current and possible future trends in underlying technologies. In this chapter, the committee considers the current state of (1) productivity growth, (2) employment, and (3) income distribution. Hitt, 2000, Beyond computation: Information technology, organizational transformation and business performance, Journal of Economic Perspectives 14(4):23-48, and L. For the impact of workplace organizations on technology, see E. Boserup, 1981, Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Ill. On how scarcity might spur innovation, see E. Roberts, eds.), Princeton University Press. Milgrom, 2013, “Complementarity in organizations” in The Handbook for Organization Economics (R. Norton, New York.įor the importance of complementarities in organizations, see E. McAfee, 2014, The Second Machine Age: Work Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, W.W. w22252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. Restrepo, 2016, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment,” No. Acemoglu, 1998, Why do new technologies complement skills? Directed technical change and wage inequality, Quarterly Journal of Economics 113(4):1055-1090 D.
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1ġ For the impact of available skills and markets on the direction of technological changes, see D. Rather, our skills, organizations, institutions, and values shape how we develop technologies and how we deploy them once created, along with their final impact. Technologies are not exogenous forces that roll over societies like tsunamis with predetermined results. An overarching theme emerges: economic and societal changes occasioned by technological developments are shaped, not just by the availability of new technologies and their features, but also by ideologies, power structures, and human aspirations and agendas. In the next two chapters, the committee turns its focus to the interactions between technology and the economy. Effects of Information Technology on Productivity, Employment, and Incomes INTRODUCTION